The CASCADE project, funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), is a three‑year initiative that brings together scientists and stakeholders from Jordan, Palestine, Israel and Germany to investigate how biodiversity, climate change and society interact in the Jordan River region. The project was launched in early 2018 after a series of co‑design workshops held in 2017. In total, five workshops were organised: three country‑specific sessions, a cross‑border meeting and a final joint stakeholder workshop in 2018. These meetings used a set of ranking criteria—importance for the region, feasibility of research, potential for policy impact and relevance to the scientific community—to evaluate candidate case studies. Scores from the workshops show that water‑related issues were rated highest (4.6–4.8 on a 5‑point scale), followed by rangeland management (4.3–4.5), agriculture (3.8–4.4) and key species conservation (3.7–3.9). The workshops concluded that the most urgent and tractable tipping point for the region is the degradation of rangelands caused by overgrazing and climate‑driven drought.

Field experiments are a core component of CASCADE’s technical work. In selected sites across the basin, researchers will manipulate grazing intensity and monitor vegetation dynamics, soil moisture and micro‑climate variables. These data will feed into hydro‑ecological models that simulate water‑balance, nutrient cycling and vegetation cover at both plot and landscape scales. The models will be calibrated against long‑term monitoring data and will be used to generate early‑warning signals of impending rangeland collapse. The early‑warning framework will identify thresholds in soil moisture and vegetation cover that precede irreversible degradation, providing a quantitative basis for threshold‑based management (TBM).

In parallel, CASCADE will conduct socio‑ethical studies to quantify how local communities perceive and respond to biodiversity loss and climate impacts. Surveys and participatory mapping will capture livelihoods, cultural values and risk perceptions, which will then be integrated into economic models that estimate the costs and benefits of different management scenarios. These models will evaluate the economic viability of TBM strategies, such as controlled grazing rotations or assisted migration of drought‑tolerant species, and will help stakeholders understand the trade‑offs between conservation and food security.

A key deliverable of the project is a feasibility study for an early‑warning system that would be operationalised through the Israeli water‑management platform HaMaarag. The study will assess data requirements, technical infrastructure and governance arrangements needed to deliver real‑time alerts to farmers and water authorities. The system is intended to act as a TBM‑supporting tool, allowing decision makers to intervene before rangeland degradation reaches a critical point.

The CASCADE project will also produce a suite of scenario analyses that explore the impacts of different climate and land‑use pathways. These include modelling the effects of extreme drought and grazing on rangeland productivity, the spread of invasive species in arid lands, the consequences of afforestation with non‑native trees for soil and water quality, and the risk of species extinction under combined grazing‑drought stress. By linking ecological, socio‑economic and policy data, the project aims to provide a holistic understanding of how to maintain ecosystem services while safeguarding livelihoods in a highly contested and climatically vulnerable region.

The project’s outputs will be disseminated through peer‑reviewed publications, policy briefs and a final report that will be made available on the BMBF portal and the German Institute of Science and Technology’s (GIST) website. The final report will also be archived by the German Institute of Science and Technology (GIST) and made freely available through the German Institute of Science and Technology’s (GIST) portal, ensuring that the knowledge generated by CASCADE can inform both regional policy and global research on socio‑ecological resilience.