The CASCADE project investigates tipping points in the Jordan River Region, a global biodiversity hotspot that offers steep climatic gradients and diverse socio‑economic settings. The scientific focus is on the degradation of semi‑natural rangelands, a key driver of ecosystem collapse in the area. Field experiments are designed to trigger tipping points by combining extreme drought with grazing pressure, allowing the team to observe the thresholds at which rangeland resilience fails. The data collected are used to parameterise and validate hydro‑ecological models that operate at the landscape scale. These models are then employed to detect early warning signals of impending tipping points, providing a quantitative basis for threshold‑based management (TBM) interventions. In parallel, sociological and ethical studies quantify the societal value of rangeland ecosystem services, including provisioning, regulating, and cultural benefits. The resulting ecosystem‑service valuations, together with the hydro‑ecological model outputs, are incorporated into national and regional economic models that simulate the costs and benefits of different land‑use scenarios and the implementation of TBM. An iterative dialogue between scientists and stakeholders verifies the model results, refines the definition of tipping points, and clarifies the role of TBM in preventing them. The ultimate goal is to establish a regional early‑warning system that supports TBM as a proactive management tool.

The project’s technical achievements include the successful integration of field‑based tipping‑point experiments with landscape‑scale modelling, the development of a framework for early warning signal detection, and the quantification of ecosystem‑service values that feed into economic decision‑making. Stakeholder workshops in July 2017 identified water quantity, rangeland, agriculture, and key species as the most critical tipping points across Jordan, the West Bank, and Israel. Median scores from these workshops (e.g., water quantity 4.6–4.8, rangeland 4.3–4.5) highlight the high transboundary relevance of these issues. The workshops also guided the selection of case studies that are both scientifically novel and practically relevant, ensuring that the research agenda aligns with policy priorities and local needs.

Collaboration is central to CASCADE’s design. The project is a transdisciplinary partnership that brings together scientists from German universities, high‑level representatives of ministries of Environment, Water, and Agriculture in Jordan, the West Bank, and Israel, and local herders who serve as end‑users of the research. The initial one‑year pre‑phase, conducted in 2017, involved co‑design workshops, a review meeting in Tübingen, and a joint stakeholder workshop at the Dead Sea. These activities produced a draft project proposal that was circulated to stakeholders for comment before the final submission in February 2018. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the BioTip call, which supports research on tipping points, dynamics, and interactions of social and ecological systems. The planned three‑year project follows the pre‑phase, with the science‑stakeholder dialogue component initially led by a key partner who, however, became unavailable for the next phase. Consequently, the consortium sought a new partner with expertise in transdisciplinary science‑stakeholder dialogue to continue the co‑creation process. Throughout the reporting period, the consortium maintained high‑quality collaboration, producing integrated reports and maintaining open communication with all stakeholders. This partnership model, combining policy makers, scientists, and local practitioners, positions CASCADE as a leading example of transdisciplinary research aimed at safeguarding ecosystem resilience in a highly vulnerable region.