The results show that in Burgas Bay a climate change induced intensification of wind-driven currents, surge levels and significant wave height and wave period is expected in 2070 – 2100 period for the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. Significant wave height growth was found most pronounced in the northern part and in the innermost part of the Burgas Bay. The results obtained showed a stable increase of surge levels in future climate conditions, in particular in the northern part of the study area.
The assessment at Burgas Beach showed that for the 100-year storm event the flooded area increases by 45% in scenarios SSP2-4.5 to 60% in scenario SSP5-8.5. The simulated beach erosion area showed only a small increase of less than 1% for all simulations but more important is that the area of erosion shifts towards the land with the increasing sea level rise, leading to beach narrowing. An increase of shoreline erosion was found between 11% and 70% for a variety of wave forcing data for different climate scenarios.
