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Predictive maps for future habitat suitability

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Using the best available species occurrence data, a set of static measures (e.g. depth, slope) & near-bottom dynamic environmental parameters (particulate organic carbon flux to the seabed, near seafloor pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, temperature, and near seafloor aragonite & calcite saturation state) that predict suitable habitats under future climate conditions for Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem indicator species & deep-sea fish species have been developed.

 Habitat suitability for six cold-water coral & six deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions & forecast changes in a severe, high emissions future (2081-2100, RCP8.5 scenario) have been modelled for the North Atlantic Ocean.

The results strongly suggest that warming, acidification, & decreasing food availability will compound to significantly reduce the availability of suitable habitats for deep-sea species by 2100. The models forecast a decrease of 28-100% of suitable habitat for cold-water corals, & a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0° – 9.9° towards higher latitudes.

Addressing target audiences and expressing needs

Our needs are
  • To raise awareness and possibly influence policy
  • Help in technical expertise
  • Use of research Infrastructure
  • Collaboration
We specifically need / are looking for

Inform policy – Our results may be used to inform management decisions, particularly on long-term sustainable management plans and enhance international dialogue on basin-scale management. We hope that our results will extend the use of habitat suitability models as tools to inform environmental management & conservation policy.

Future collaborations – We hope others use our application of habitat suitability models as a template, for similar analyses on other taxa or in additional regions, helping to resolve changes of distribution an identification of refugia for monitoring purposes.

Target audiences
  • EU and Member State Policy-makers
  • International Organisations (ex. OECD, FAO, UN, etc.)
  • Research and Technology Organisations
  • Academia/ Universities

Result submitted to Horizon Results Platform by IMAR – INSTITUTO DO MAR

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RUA PROF DR FREDERICO MACHADO 4 DEPARTAMENTO DE OCEANOGRAFIA E PESCAS UNIV DOS ACORES
Horta
Horta
9901-862
Portugal

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